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Refinitiv carbon research

Leading insights into the rapidly evolving carbon trading markets

Our data, research, analysis and modelling provide clarity in a turbulent commodity market – enabling emissions traders to make decisions quicker and with greater confidence.

Refinitiv Commodities Research helps you understand the global commodity complex and empowers commodity traders to make informed trading decisions.

With Refinitiv's carbon research and analysis, you can leverage sophisticated proprietary modelling and forecasting techniques to understand the supply and demand trends of emissions allowances, and the related impact on carbon and emissions pricing.

Read our in-depth and up-to-date analysis of the European climate policy pipeline and how the key proposals are likely to affect the market balance. Access unique coverage of China’s emissions trading system monitored and researched by our Beijing office.

Fed by fundamental data, as well as developments in regulatory policy around the world, our commentaries and publications give you the edge in carbon trading, so that you can make every trade count.

What’s driving carbon prices?

As countries are raising their climate ambitions, and global greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly accounted for, the fundamentals driving carbon markets are changing. More ambitious climate change targets have led to emissions trading becoming an ever more important policy instrument in delivering emissions reductions.

While the world’s carbon markets can be seen as a series of sovereign jurisdictions, each with its own set of rules, the key characteristics are the same. Price formation is a complex interplay of near-term and long-term supply-demand balance, fuel prices, macro-economic trends, and policy and regulatory developments.

For the European carbon market, the EU ETS, the comprehensive reform from 2018 curbed much of the oversupply and triggered the start of a still ongoing price rally. It hass also attracted interest from financial speculators - those market participants who are trading emissions not because they must, but because they expect to profit. 

Carbon Markets Annual Year in Review

Annual Year in Review

Once the shift from fossil fuels to green power is complete, the onus of further emissions reductions will move to Europe’s hard-to-decarbonise industry - a sector that operates in a global market. Over the coming decade, emissions trading is set to take centre stage at the intersection of technology, finance, and international trade policy. This is evident in the EU Green Deal that aims to make the continent carbon neutral by 2050. On the way there, Europe has set itself an ambitious target to reduce emissions by 55 percent by 2030 (compared to 1990-levels). 

On 14 July 2021 the European Commission presented a series of legislative proposals to recalibrate the key policy instruments for the new 2030 target. That includes the directives for the EU ETS, for renewable energy and for energy efficiency, as well as a new regulation on a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, to deal with import of industry goods from countries with less stringent climate policy. 

In China, the key focus is currently on the national emissions trading system that was operationally launched in January 2021, building on 8 years of experience from regional pilot trading schemes. The national system will play an important role in meeting the country’s key climate change targets, namely peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The system became fully operational on 16 July, with the launch of a carbon trading platform in Shanghai and a carbon transaction registry in Hubei.  As of now, the national carbon trading system covers only the power sector, but it will expand to metals and cement, and eventually also to other emissions-intensive sectors.

Our solution

Award-winning data, analytics, news and research 

Refinitiv Commodities Research helps you understand the global energy complex and empowers you to make informed trading decisions.

Our annual review of carbon markets, published each year in January, present our assessment of the major global carbon markets, showcasing the main trends in global emission trading systems and areas where such systems are emerging.

We collect data from official sources – most notably carbon trading platforms such as ICE, EEX, KRX, and the Chinese carbon exchanges – and, where relevant, estimate the size of bilateral (over-the-counter) transactions, to give us an estimate of the actual volume traded.Within our suite of solutions, Refinitiv Carbon Research provides the most comprehensive insights into the carbon markets, which makes all the difference between success and failure in the carbon trading complex.

Analysis, commentary and insights from Refinitiv Carbon Research includes:

  • In-depth and timely fundamental analysis of the main carbon trading markets – view rigorously researched analyst reports on market developments
  • Analysis of policy and regulatory reform – climate change targets overall and for sectors regulated by cap-and-trade schemes, interplay between emissions trading and other climate change policy tools
  • For Europe:
    • Carbon supply and demand forecasts out to 2030
    • Regularly updated carbon price forecasts out to 2030
    • Database of all emitters regulated under the EU ETS
    • Daily and weekly carbon market reports, commentary and price prediction developments
  • For China:
    • Carbon supply and demand short-term and long-term forecasts for the national ETS
    • Monthly review of the national, pilot and offset markets
    • Coal power plants generation and capacity database
    • Offset project database
  • For global developments our annual review of carbon markets serves as a reference report for market observers, showing our assessment of volume and values across geographies and segments – a summary of market and policy developments.
  • Our annual Carbon Market Survey collects stakeholder views on the state of the carbon markets, and what can be expected going forward.
  • Our carbon team has published an annual assessment of global carbon markets since 2006. These publications have consistently served as a reference in the world of carbon trading.

Access a sample of market insights and analysis with a selection of free carbon market research reports available for download here.

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Benefits

Why use Refinitiv carbon research?

Our dedicated team of analysts, researchers, and carbon market specialists provide analysis and assessments of the fundamental elements of the commodity trading complex. We have the information that allows you to predict future carbon price movements earlier and with greater success.

300,000+

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Contributors

Meet our carbon market analysts and researchers

Meet the authors and contributors who share their expertise across Refinitiv Carbon Research, informing your carbon trading decisions.

Our dedicated research and forecasts team have built an enviable record of thorough analysis and accurate forecasting across the carbon markets.

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