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Sustainable Finance

Winners and Losers from COP26 

COP26 can be considered a qualified success: long-term commitments moved the needle further towards limiting warming to 1.5°C, but short-term ambition and policy plans were lacking in many cases. 

Self-interest, economics and financial reasons are becoming increasingly aligned with the moral and scientific reasons to limit global warming, leading to optimism about reaching the 1.5°C target. 

COP26 was never likely to provide a definitive outcome as to whether the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be met, but the conference can be seen as a powerful force in mobilising the large-scale investment needed for the net zero transition.

In this paper we digest the outcomes of COP26 and assess the relative winners and losers from the deal itself and different future temperature pathways. In scenarios where global warming is limited, small island nations and emerging markets, that would otherwise suffer the brunt of warming, are the biggest beneficiaries.

The paper dives into:

  • The outcomes of net zero transition 
  • Countries exposed to net zero transition moves
  • A future view of net zero pathways
  • 2.7°C
    of global warming is predicted, by the UN, from revised country pledges after COP26
  • $100 billion per year
    previously promised by developed nations has not been delivered to emerging economies to help with global warming
  • 33% - 50%
    chance of staying below 1.7°C in two net zero pathways outlined by Fathom Consulting

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