All Episodes

Episode 91: Is the bearish stock market consensus wrong?

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the consensus amongst equity strategists for a 10% to 20% correction in the US stock market. Most market professionals expect a 5% to 10% correction. But is this now too much of a consensus to actually come true?
•Episode 91
17 min

Episode 90: How weak is the US jobs market?

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent big miss from the Non-Farm Payrolls and compare this to some of the other jobs data which suggests there is a massive shortfall in available workers.
•Episode 90
11 min

Episode 89: A slowdown is coming - should we care?

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the data which is starting to roll over and points to an economic soft patch ahead. There was a time that this would be a worry for stock markets, but in today’s world of intervention, a delay to taper or even an expectation of more QE would more than offset a slowdown in business activity.
•Episode 89
11 min

Episode 88: Time for another taper tantrum?

We look at the potential impact on risk assets if the Fed were to announce a tapering of their bond purchases in the next few weeks.
•Episode 88
11 min

Episode 87: What does China's slowdown signal for markets?

This week Real Vision’s Max Wiethe breaks down the economic data pointing to a potential slowdown in China. With China’s return to COVID restrictions, economic activity in the global superpower is already starting to take a hit, but asset prices in China have already taken a hit.
•Episode 87
20 min

Episode 86: Why is the market sending mixed inflation signals?

This week Real Vision’s Max Wiethe breaks down the mixed signals coming from the market and hard economic data surrounding the inflation vs. deflation debate.
•Episode 86
8 min

Episode 85: Is now the time to buy Europe?

This week Garett Lim, Director, Group Strategic Relations, LSEG talks to Steve Brice, the Chief Investment Officer for Standard Chartered Bank, Wealth about the state of the reflation trade, the recent underperformance of Chinese equities and the opportunity that he sees in European equities.
•Episode 85
20 min

Episode 84: Will China’s rebalance impact markets?

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the activity in China, where tech stocks are coming under extreme pressure and policymakers are allowing pockets of stress to appear in the credit markets.
•Episode 83
11 min

Episode 83: Did central banks stop the reset?

This week we have a conversation with Andrea Zazzarelli, Chief Investment Strategist at Fathom Consulting, about whether the economy and market have entered a new cycler after the COVID recession, or whether policymakers have supercharged the previous one.
•Episode 83
17 min

Episode 82: Which markets are vulnerable to this mid-cycle slowdown?

In The Chatter this week, Cornelia Andersson, Head of M&A and Capital Raising at Refinitiv, discusses the record volumes in the M&A space and the key role that private equity has played in this process, and the potential for these firms to be priced out as corporate activity starts to pick up.
•Episode 82
13 min

Episode 81: Will China drag down global growth?

This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the soft macro data coming out of China that could be a prelude to a decline in world growth. With many investors still positioned for reflation, the impact from China could wrong foot many investors.
•Episode 81
13 min

Episode 80: Is stock market protection too expensive?

This week we look at the unusual activity taking place under the hood of the equity market. Some of this has never been seen before, but should we care, if central banks have our backs? Recent history highlights the risk of air pockets, but are put options now too expensive?
•Episode 80
16 min

Episode 79: Will a dollar squeeze kill markets?

In this week’s Chatter, Jeoff Hall, Managing Economist at Refinitiv, discusses the outlook for US employment and the recent data conundrum, where there are signs of both extreme slack and extreme tightness.
•Episode 79
17 min

Episode 78: Why markets aren't being impacted by inflation

In this episode of the Big Conversation, we look at the employment and inflation conundrum that's creating uncertainty for the direction of US yields.
•Episode 78
16 min

Episode 77: The two biggest risks for markets

In this week’s Chatter, Tom Roseen, Head of Research Services at Refinitiv Lipper, outlines the fund flows that have been driving the market this year.
•Episode 77
18 min

Episode 76: Has the tech stock buyback bonanza returned?

We look at the subdued reaction of yields to the current bout of inflation and a corporate sector that appears to be gearing up for buybacks rather than growth.
•Episode 76
17 min

Episode 75: Have banks been overrun by QE?

We look at the sudden rise in reserves that banks are depositing with the Federal Reserve. Is there too much cash, or too few things to buy?
•Episode 75
17 min

Episode 74: Will the fed initiate a taper tantrum?

This week we look at the latest surge in inflation data, the opportunity this presents for precious metals such as silver and gold, and the likely response from policymakers.
•Episode 74
17 min

Episode 73: Is now the time for a stock market hedge?

In this week’s Chatter, Refinitiv's Saida Litosh outlines the demand for gold from retail, who are investing in physical gold such as jewelry, whilst institutions have been liquidating ETF positions as they flip into reflation trades.
•Episode 73
17 min

Episode 72: Is inflation out of control?

This week we look at the rising fear of extreme inflation that is sweeping some parts of the market based on the buildup of income and savings in the US.
•Episode 72
11 min

Episode 71: Commodity prices, margin debt & inflation

This week we look at the two themes which are dominating market talk: the surge in commodity prices and the rise in the use of margin debt to fuel the US equity rally.
•Episode 71
17 min

Episode 70: Are Chinese authorities tightening their policy?

We look at the latest Chinese data and the signs that the authorities are starting to tighten their policy and reign in excess credit from last year’s support programs
•Episode 70
17 min

Episode 69: Should we fear inflation?

We look at the likelihood of inflation data taking off from here as we start to see the impact of base effects from last year’s pandemic bust.
•Episode 69
16 min

Episode 68: Are your stocks at risk from leverage?

We look at the risks that excess leverage can pose for the financial system. Was the recent demise of a family office an isolated incident or the tip of the iceberg?
•Episode 68
18 min

Episode 67: Dollar strength undermines the consensus

We look at the cracks that have been appearing across the financial landscape after only a small bounce in the US dollar.
•Episode 67
12 min

Episode 66: Is the fed too dovish?

We look at potential repercussions from the Fed’s dovish turn at the March FOMC. Will an aggressively loose stance to inflation divert capital from other means?
•Episode 66
18 min

Episode 65: Will China kill inflation?

We look at China’s key role within the reflation narrative and how it’s been driving some commodity prices higher. Is this a sustainable move?
•Episode 65
14 min

Episode 64: Will reflation kill the economy?

We look at the success of the reflation trade and how higher equity prices are diverting capital from the real economy.
•Episode 64
16 min

Episode 63: Lift-off for oil stocks?

We look at the underperformance of traditional energy. Miners and banks have all outperformed. Is it the turn for energy stocks to take-off?
•Episode 63
14 min

Episode 62: Will Inflation Hurt Your Tech Stocks?

We look at the impact of inflation and higher yields on risk assets and ask if inflation can take hold in the US if the rest of the world is experiencing deflation.
•Episode 62
15 min

Episode 61: Is the Fed about to fight inflation?

We look at the rising risk of the Fed intervening to cap yields if they continue to march higher. It could be fatal for risk assets if yields move faster than growth.
•Episode 61
20 min

Episode 60: Good bubbles bad bubbles

We compare some of history’s largest bubbles. Investors are fixated on the unwinding of asset prices, but the longer-term impacts are not always negative.
•Episode 60
18 min

Episode 59: Rising stock markets are bad for growth

We look at why a surging stock market is diverting cash from the real economy, which in turn will reduce the likelihood of reflation taking hold.
•Episode 59
18 min

Episode 58: Record breaking mania in equity options?

We look at the surge in single stock equity volumes which is breaking records again in early 2021.
•Episode 58
15 min

Episode 57: When do bond yields hurt equities?

We review the relationship between bond yields and equity markets and the potential for higher yields to impact risk.
•Episode 57
15 min

Episode 56: Hedging for a reversal of reflation

We review the dollar-based reflation trade versus the global growth narrative.
•Episode 56
19 min

Episode 55: Could the reflation consensus be wrong?

We review the overwhelming consensus for reflation trades in 2021, based on the combination of fiscal and monetary policy, plus the arrival of the vaccine.
•Episode 55
20 min

Episode 54: 10 charts that define 2021

Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the dramatic year through the lens of 10 charts and then picks 10 more that define the narrative for 2021.
•Episode 54
23 min

Episode 53: A Future of Sport Special

We talk to a number of experts from both traditional and e-sports to talk about how the Covid pandemic has affected their respective industries.
•Episode 53
20 min

Episode 52: Roll-Over or Reflation?

We look at the potential for reflation in early 2021. Government policy has already been incredibly loose, but so far it has provided little more than life support, even if US equities have rallied.
•Episode 52
14 min

Episode 51: US election: the markets pray for clarity

We talk about the potential outcomes of the US election and how they might affect the markets.
•Episode 51
17 min

Episode 50: Climate analytics special

We talk to experts in the fields of ESG investing. This trend could have ground to a halt during the Covid crisis. But instead, it has accelerated.
•Episode 50
25 min

Episode 48: A US Election Hedge

We look at how the election uncertainty may be extreme but the policy response of both sides may be surprisingly similar offering a platform for precious metals
•Episode 48
16 min

Episode 47: Can banks bounce back

We look at the recent downturn in global bank stocks, highlighting their poor performance during the equity rebound since March.
•Episode 47
21 min

Episode 46: Going to extremes

We look at whether the options activity of the retail traders will have a lasting impact on the US equity market.
•Episode 46
20 min

Episode 45: The Megalodon in the Options Market

We look at the impact that the options market is having on US equity volatility. One player has captured the headlines. Are they the biggest fish in the ocean?
•Episode 45
18 min

Episode 44: The Inflation Deflation Debate

We look at the legacy of Shinzo Abe's economic policy Abenomics. It led the way for many of the fiscal and monetary policies now being adopted worldwide
•Episode 44
22 min

Episode 43: The Inflation Deflation Debate

We look at the spike in US CPI data is a sign of higher inflation to come, or whether deflation is baked in the cake.
•Episode 43
21 min

Episode 42: The US dollar bear market

Roger Hirst and Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and Macro Insiders discuss the probability that a major structural peak is now in place for the US dollar.
•Episode 42
34 min

Episode 41: The future of trading

Louisa is joined by a number of market luminaries. Together they discuss how the future of trading is being disrupted.
•Episode 41
18 min

Episode 40: Will dollar bulls see red?

We discuss what is next for Dollar bulls after the currency has endured its biggest monthly percentage drop in a decade?
•Episode 39
19 min

Episode 39: Can China centralize crypto?

We discuss China’s new central bank digital currency. We are joined by David Craig, CEO of Refinitiv to talk about the data regarding the world of vaccines.
•Episode 39
19 min

Episode 38: Dollar doldrums before the surge

This week we discuss the outlook for the US dollar and commodities with Tony Nash, CEO and Founder of Complete Intelligence, a forecasting company.
•Episode 38
25 min

Episode 37: China’s seductive stock surge

This week we look at how the Chinese equity market is echoing the market of 2015, which reached bubble territory before a crash back down to earth.
•Episode 37
19 min

Episode 36: The fiscal crater

We look at how the UK government might attempt to get out of the £300 billion economic crater, created by the fiscal response to the COVID pandemic.
•Episode 36
19 min

Episode 35: Gold is good, bubbles are bad

we look at how bond yields are reflecting the growth outlook whilst equities reflect the flow.
•Episode 35
19 min

Episode 34: Now it’s a bubble

We look at how the nature of the equity market has changed between the highs of February and the highs that are being made in the Nasdaq today.
•Episode 34
21 min

Episode 33: The fed flinches

The Fed flinched at the first decent wobble in the equity market. With price discovery distorted, what should investors be watching for clues about growth?
•Episode 33
18 min

Episode 32: Will reality return with the reopening

We look at the latest conversations on monetary policies that continue to stack the rebound in favor of risk assets and large corporates.
•Episode 32
18 min

Episode 31: Monetary madness is not the answer

We look at the conversations about monetary policies that are stacking the rebound in favor of risk assets and large corporates, at the expense of the real economy.
•Episode 31
18 min

Episode 30: Equities are not the economy

We look at how the move in US equity prices is shaping our view of the economic recovery, which will not be following the same trajectory as the Nasdaq.
•Episode 30
18 min

Episode 29: Can central banks stop the bankruptcies?

We look at how the gap between Main Street and Wall Street is getting wider, with consumers retrenching and small businesses facing bankruptcy.
•Episode 29
18 min

Episode 28: The global solvency crisis

We look at how a solvency crisis will emerge out of this economic shock. Governments have helped offset the initial liquidity shock, but balance sheets are impaired.
•Episode 28
33 min

Episode 27: Economic crisis: Inflation shock or deflation bust?

We look at the inflationary and deflationary pressures that are impacting global economies. Can money printing manufacture inflation?
•Episode 27
21 min

Episode 26: The long road from lockdown

We look at the speed with which economies can emerge from lockdown and the ability for consumers to recover.
•Episode 26
17 min

Episode 25: Will The Fed Create A Disorderly Dollar?

We look at whether the monetary accommodation by the US Federal Reserve may drive the dollar higher and have a negative impact on global risk assets.
•Episode 25
17 min

Episode 24: Will equity markets ever roll over again?

See whether the rally in the equity market is forming a fabled V shaped recovery, rare throughout history, but one that is now becoming a consensus view.
•Episode 24
17 min

Episode 23: The lasting effects of a lockdown

We look at whether markets are pricing in peak fear or peak economic distress. Peak fear may already be behind us, but has the economic pain only just started?
•Episode 23
17 min

Episode 22: We’re going to need a bigger bailout

This week we look at the combined attempts by governments and central banks to lift equity markets off their lows whilst keeping a lid on the US dollar.
•Episode 22
17 min

Episode 21: Here come the helicopters

We look at the government response to the shattering of global markets. Will their response have an inflationary impact in the short or long term?
•Episode 21
16 min

Episode 20: Is the market breaking apart

We look at the breakdown in the fabric of global markets. Has the economic slowdown now morphed into an unwind of smart beta style funds?
•Episode 20
17 min

Episode 19: Market fault lines exposed by oil shock

We look at the moves in global asset prices which suggest that the oil shock has revealed the weaknesses that have been building up across financial markets.
•Episode 19
16 min

Episode 18: The Big Conversation special - Coronavirus

We help answer some of the key questions asked about the market turmoil. Will central banks provide support, should we buy the dip and how long will it last?
•Episode 18
16 min

Episode 17: The dollar surges as the virus goes global

We look at the causes behind the US dollar’s rally. Is it just powered by the spread of coronavirus? Or were their issues that pre-date the virus?
•Episode 17
16 min

Episode 16: What on Earth is ESG

This week we help you to understand the thorny issue of ESG. Most think of it as climate change, when in reality its about corporate change.
•Episode 16
17 min

Episode 15: Can Germany's economy recover?

We look at the macro headwinds that Germany still faces. However, the DAX index is close to an all-time high. When will the economy and the equity converge?
•Episode 15
15 min

Episode 14: Can the China Coronavirus cause a global recession?

We look at the impact that the virus is having on key asset classes and the price action to follow for signs that the global economy is tipping into recession.
•Episode 13
15 min

Episode 13: Volatility and Viruses

We look at the type of volatility regime which the market is operating under and how this might critically impact the reaction to the virus outbreak.
•Episode 13
15 min

Episode 12: When's a bubble not a bubble?

This week we examine the lack of emotional attachment suggesting that equities could still be some way short of a euphoric top. The market chatter sees a buying opportunity for the British Pound in the recent weak UK data, which largely pre-dates the election. And the whisper looks at a couple of market hedges that try to keep down the carry costs that are killing us.
•Episode 12
17 min

Episode 11: Will bonds break the bull?

We look at the changing nature of equity markets. Also at at the removal of some key market supports as we enter US Q4 earnings season.
•Episode 11
15 min

Episode 10: Who to Fear Iran or the Fed

We look at whether geopolitics or central bank balance sheets are the biggest fear for markets, given the escalation in tensions with Iran.
•Episode 10
15 min

Episode 9: The Fiscal Future

We take a look at the grip that monetary policy has on markets. Growth has remained sluggish, whilst the investment framework is undergoing a structural change.
•Episode 9
15 min

Episode 8: Top charts for 2020

This week we highlight ten charts that matter for 2020 that everyone should have on their radar. Central banks, commodities and more are in the spotlight.
•Episode 8
15 min

Episode 7: Bear market catalysts

This week we let you in on the risks and the catalysts in the US equity market and what could be the potential signs of a reversal.
•Episode 7
15 min

Episode 6:China's slowdown

We discuss the slowdown in China despite the trade wars. China is trying to evolve its economy away from reliance on credit fueled manufacturing.
•Episode 6
15 min

Episode 5: Emerging markets and growth?

This week we focus on the signals being given by emerging market currencies. We look at the potential for the US to escalate trade tensions with Europe.
•Episode 5
15 min

Episode 4: Is India’s economy losing momentum?

We focus on the short-term headwinds lining up against India’s long-term opportunities. We explore whether the weakness in Hong Kong asset prices poses a risk for other global financial markets.
•Episode 4
15 min

Episode 3: Corporate earnings and the equity market

In this episode we look at whether U.S. corporate earnings matter to the stock market anymore, and if investors have become complacent about equities.
•Episode 3
15 min

Episode 2: UK election fiscal impact for markets worldwide

This week we focus on the global knock-on effects of the UK election - including implications for the dollar and bond yields.
•Episode 2
13 min

Episode 1: Will there be a U.S. recession?

In this episode we look at whether there could be a U.S. recession, what the Central banks might do about it and if there might be an end of year sell-off.
•Episode 1
13 min