- The Big Conversation
- Episode 42: Coronavirus - Series Conclusion
Published on: November 9, 2020 • Duration: 4 minutes
David Craig, CEO of Refinitiv, takes you through some of the key moments of the series. With over 41 episodes since our first broadcast on the 4th of March, Refinitiv analysts and partners have given us data-driven insights to help make sense of this pandemic. The impact of the corona crisis is likely to continue well into 2021, so don’t miss out on the important analysis of markets and policy makers over on The Big Conversation.
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[00:00:06] Welcome, welcome, welcome to the Corona Correction series in association with Refinitiv. Remember the world we knew on March 4th, the day we broadcast the first Corona Correction? Since then, over 41 episodes, Refinitiv analysts and partners have given us data-driven insights that we have started to make sense of this pandemic. Running alongside new Eikon apps that are giving customers essential data, news, charts and insights about Covid. We've seen incredible demand for data this year and wild market swings. So for our final episode of The Corona Correction, we're taking a look back at a couple of those key moments and ask 'what might come next'? The analysis continues on The Big Conversation each week, and look out for a fresh new take of events from 2021. In the meantime, stay safe, but enjoy this look back. Thank you.
[00:00:53] First quarter of twenty twenty, we saw equity funds decline about twenty two point three three percent.
[00:00:58] Coronavirus has ravaged offshore production in Brazil.
[00:01:00] Our numbers suggest it was over one hundred thirty mines that were shut down during at some point over the last three or four months.
[00:01:06] These are historic numbers in an historic pandemic.
[00:01:10] It's likely that the impact of the Corona virus on M&A and capital racing is a story of a delayed effect.
[00:01:17] A one week shock, will, it takes about three weeks, three times the duration to price it into the markets.
[00:01:21] Lenders are telling us, is going to be very little activity in the short term and that will impact loan volumes in both the high grade and leveraged spaces.
[00:01:29] If one compares with what happened with SARS, I would think that we are still in the escalation phase of the Corona virus.
[00:01:36] The Corona virus has definitely underlined the importance for retailers to have a very strong online presence and good digital marketing strategy.
[00:01:45] China's curve has definitely flattened. We're seeing sort of 30 percent, 50 percent, 70 percent, up to one hundred percent of work being maintained now in various parts of China.
[00:01:56] What we're seeing now that people are most interested in, is a tracking the recovery, so which industries are going to spring back the fastest? Which industries are going to also take longer to recover?
[00:02:12] In some industries, market expectations are now very low, in others it's still pretty high.
[00:02:19] I think Europe is an area for for watching, not only in terms of how they're dealing with an exit to the lockdown and the health crisis, but indeed how it is that they will be financing this recovery.
[00:02:30] As the countries that have been impacted hardest by Corona start to spend money, start to borrow money, we might see more of an unfolding credit story both at the sovereign level and at the corporate level.
[00:02:43] This is the time when hedge funds should shine.
[00:02:47] If we take history as any guide that we'll see, potentially record prices towards the end of this this year and even into twenty twenty one.
[00:02:55] There's growing pressure to align financing and environmental goals, especially if there are state-supported financing of corporations.
[00:03:05] The business world as we know it, as it exists in the past and right now, that's what needs to change.
[00:03:12] So we can't rely on the old growth levers anymore. We need to embrace and adopt a new approach and look at different ways to encourage GDP growth, because when growth comes back and it will, economies which will do very well, will be the ones which are more open to changes.
[00:03:30] The impact of the Corona crisis on global markets is likely to continue well into twenty, twenty one. And perhaps beyond governments and central banks will have to combine monetary and fiscal policies to help support economies and asset prices. On The Big Conversation, we'll continue using Refinitiv data to analyze how markets and policymakers evolve through this uncertain time.
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