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Corporate Treasury Data Insights: Crisis in Ukraine – what comes next?

Andrew Hollins
Andrew Hollins
Director of Corporate Treasury Proposition, Refinitiv

Andrew Hollins, Director of Corporate Treasury Proposition at Refinitiv, focuses on potential impacts of the crisis in Ukraine on corporate risk and liquidity management, as it relates to the corporate treasury community.

  1. The impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the corporate treasury has been widespread. It includes volatility in the FX market and government bonds.
  2. Meanwhile, commodities have been hit hard by the crisis. Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of wheat, which has caused supply chain problems with 15 million tonnes stranded.
  3. Also of interest this month are measuring inflation expectations, the LIBOR transition, carbon trading and global sanctions.

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Chart of the Month

Russia Ukraine tensions safe haven chart

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine continues to have significant market impact across the globe, and this month we highlight areas which may impact on corporate risk and liquidity management.

In the run-up to the morning of 24 February, activity in the usual safe haven currencies (CHF and JPY) had been comparatively benign – indicating the FX market was not overly concerned by events in Ukraine.

Both $/JPY and $/CHF then sold off sharply with FX volatility likely to be elevated for a prolonged period.

On the commodities front Chicago wheat rose sharply given supply disruption from the key grain exporting Black Sea regions.

In the rates markets, U.S. Treasury Yield volatility is now near highs last seen in March 2020 with Treasury Bonds caught between expected Fed rate hikes and investor desire for safety, pulling long-term rates lower.

What’s next?

Rising rates volatility will have an impact on the cost of hedging with interest rate caps and swaptions, at least in the near term.

Commodity markets have been heavily impacted, with knock-on elevated volatility in most commodity currencies such as CAD, NZD and AUD. With Russia being a major producer of platinum, silver, gold, nickel and palladium, sourcing of alternative supplies may become a factor.

Companies with exposure to alternative source countries, including South Africa, Canada, Indonesia, Philippines, China and Australia, may want to monitor flows and relative valuations in these currencies.

With ships now avoiding the region, leaving up to a reported 15 million tonnes of wheat stranded, importers of Black Sea wheat may need to seek alternative supplies. Replacing such a large volume elsewhere would lead to a significant impact on stocks of other export nations.

The Ukraine Crisis app is now live in Eikon. Manage risk to your corporate treasury with a data and analytics tool.

Oil on boil: the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Refinitiv Oil Research has published a comprehensive report on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crises on the oil market. Access the latest research.

A new way to measure inflation expectations

Inflation measures how much more expensive a set of goods and services has become over a certain period, usually a year. A white paper from Fathom Consulting and Refinitiv explores the shortcomings of traditional measures of inflation expectations. Explore a new framework for thinking about inflation expectations and surprises.

The LIBOR transition is far from over

In December 2021, LIBOR setting publication ceased on over two dozen settings. But the transition is far from over as phasing out continues for legacy contracts. What are the challenges that remain?

Carbon trading: exponential growth on record high

Refinitiv Commodities Research explores the factors behind the exponential growth in carbon trading costs, including climate targets agreed at COP26.

Navigating the changing sanctions landscape

Despite a massive change in priorities for most organisations due to the global health crisis, it is not a good time to relax sanctions controls or allow the subject to slip down the action list.

Refinitiv Corporate Treasury Newsbeat

  • Refinitiv to revise Tokyo Swap Rate (for swaps referencing TIBOR) methodology | Refinitiv announced that it will amend the methodology of Tokyo Swap Rate (for swaps referencing TIBOR®). The publication using the existing methodology is not viable beyond the end of January due to a rapid withdrawal of banks contributing to the rate. On 19 January 2022 Refinitiv issued a consultation paper to collect feedback on the level of use of Tokyo Swap Rate (for swaps referencing TIBOR®) and the approach for an orderly cessation. In response to consultation feedback and to support users, Refinitiv will make material changes to the current methodology to ensure continuity of publication.
  • Refinitiv Launches Public Consultation on the Potential Cessation of CDOR | Following the publication of the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate (CARR) working group press release, and white paper on 16 December 2021, regarding the future of CDOR, Refinitiv Benchmark Services (UK) Limited (RBSL) has published a public consultation. The RBSL consultation invites feedback regarding CARR’s findings and recommendation that RBSL ceases publication of all of CDOR’s remaining tenors after the end of June 2024. It will close at 5pm Toronto time on February 28th 2022.
  • Refinitiv expands collaboration with Microsoft to launch market-data powered AI assistant in Microsoft Teams | Refinitiv announced the launch of Refinitiv AI Alerts, a market-data powered intelligent assistant available in Microsoft Teams. Refinitiv AI Alerts seeks to provide personalised, timely and actionable market insights for financial professionals, in collaboration with ModuleQ, a leader in human-centred artificial intelligence. User-specific content suggestions and alerts are driven by ModuleQ’s proprietary algorithms and Refinitiv’s Intelligent Tagging service, and are linked back to Refinitiv Eikon and Workspace for deeper analysis and action.

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