In this blog, Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF) editor Divya Chowdhury provides an overview of the trending topics from GMF in the first half of 2022, where Refinitiv and Reuters brought together the most influential minds from finance and politics in topical discussions.
- GMF on Refinitiv Messenger hosted an eclectic mix of high-profile guests in the first half of 2022, from the formal advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
- Bill Winters, Chief Executive of Standard Chartered told forum members that he expected central banks’ fight against surging inflation, driven by structural cost pressures such as wage growth, to result in a “relatively shallow and short” recession by early next year.
- For more actionable insights, register to join the GMF as we continue to tackle the topics most impacting financial professionals.
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Surging inflation, fractured supply chains, and uncertainty around central bank action, especially from the U.S. Federal Reserve, topped the markets’ worry list as we stepped into 2022.
As clear communication from central bankers on the tightening path ahead began calming investors, Russia unexpectedly attacked Ukraine just as February was drawing to a close.
GMF’s dynamic and evolving coverage brought early actionable insights to our members on these events as they have unfolded in the first half of 2022 – from guest speakers including the chief of a major global bank, policy advisors, fund managers at the world’s biggest asset management firms, strategists, economists, executives from companies in finance, healthcare, fintech, travel, hospitality, intergovernmental organisations and multilateral banks.
Standard Chartered Chief Executive Bill Winters told Forum members he expected central banks’ fight against surging inflation, driven by structural cost pressures such as wage growth, to result in a “relatively shallow and short” recession by early next year.
Commentary on Ukraine
Even before the war in Ukraine began, strategists from Invesco and Nikko Asset Management forecast on GMF that oil prices would hit $100 a barrel due to strong demand and a potential war between Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, fund managers from Generali Insurance Asset Management, Manulife Investment Management and DBS Bank, among others, predicted a volatile first half of 2022 for risk assets.
Our discussions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine featured our most engaging guests and most-read transcripts, including:
Andrew Mac, a formal advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, predicted Western nations would impose the toughest possible sanctions on Russia, targeting the country on energy and cutting it off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system.
John Hulsman, political risk consultant and foreign policy commentator, told GMF that a slower pace of sanctions would give the West more leverage against Russia.
Jennifer Hillman from the Council on Foreign Relations, predicted the world was heading back into a Cold War and that the West will look to target key commodities under product sanctions to hit Russia.
GMF back at Davos
After a hiatus of more than two years, we attended a springtime Davos, once again delivering stellar coverage of the WEF Annual Meeting from Switzerland. We interviewed 22 eclectic guests and were among the first to get insights from Forum members on an impending global food crisis, and the world’s climate commitments being tested by energy and funding shocks.
EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso told GMF at Davos that the bank was preparing to raise additional funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine after pledging to spend €1bn in the country in 2022.
Other notable guests on GMF in the first half of 2022 included International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) director-general Francesco La Camera, portfolio managers from PIMCO and Amundi, “Black Swan” hedge fund Universa Investments CIO Mark Spitznagel, executives from AstraZeneca, Mastercard, Tata Consultancy Services and Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd.
Coming up in the second half of 2022 is our continued coverage of key economic data points and the most important questions on investors’ minds – Has inflation peaked, or will it be peaking anytime soon? And is the world going to be pushed into a recession by overzealous central bankers, as they wage a war against supply-side inflation?
GMF will host policymakers, central bankers, fund managers, economists and strategists, who will break these questions down for us, and give us their outlooks on the path ahead for monetary policy and how to navigate these choppy markets.
Confirmed guests include Sanjeev Sanyal, member of India’s Economic Advisory Council, Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, Dennis Lockhart, former Atlanta Fed President, former BOJ policy board members Sayuri Shirai and Takahide Kiuchi, and “Mr Yen” Eisuke Sakakibara, former Japan vice finance minister, and Stephen Poloz, former Bank of Canada Governor, among others.
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