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Corporate Treasury Data insights from June

Andrew Hollins
Andrew Hollins
Director of Corporate Treasury Proposition, Refinitiv

Andrew Hollins brings you a round-up of the latest insights for our corporate treasury community – including a look back at our recent webinar on managing and hedging corporate FX risk.

  1. Easing recession fears and a potential Fed ‘pause’ have contributed to a positive mood in US markets. News in charts tells us the full story, from US CPI to recession probability to US jobs quit rate.
  2. Catch-up with the insights from our latest webinar, ‘Managing and Hedging Corporate FX Risk’.
  3. Plus, we look at whether the debate around the US reaching its debt ceiling could harm the US dollar; the outlook for inflation in the UK, and how sustainable investment approaches are evolving with the growth of passive investing.

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Chart of the Month | US CPI

If prices continue to increase at their average rate so far this year, headline inflation will fall below 4% in June for the first time in more than two years, thanks to favourable base effects.

Easing US recession fears and increasing expectations of a Fed ‘pause’ have contributed to a new, positive mood in US markets, aided by technological optimism about the possible benefits of AI.

The S&P 500 was more than 20% off its cyclical lows during trading earlier this week, although whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market, is too early to tell. The outlook for inflation and all its associated implications for Federal Reserve policy will continue to prove critical, as they have done for several quarters now.

The US labour market report for May surprised to the upside, marking the 13th time out of 14 that the initial print has been higher than the median expectation among economists polled by Reuters. It adds to a range of coincident data suggesting that the US economy continues to shrug off rate hikes and banking turmoil to avoid recession. Of course, investors must consider the risks that good news ends up being bad news if strong output data continue to keep price pressures elevated. Click here to read on.

For more charts and analysis, access a pre-built library of charts built by Fathom Consulting via Datastream Chartbook in Refinitiv Eikon and Workspace.

Re-cap: Managing and Hedging Corporate FX Risk Webinar: On 31st May, we were joined by an audience of over five hundred treasurers as we tackled the topic of FX risk. In this clip, hear from Kumar Ayashkanta, Group CIO of Wipro Enterprises, on the challenges Wipro is facing in today’s volatile markets – and how they are meeting them. If you missed the webinar, click here to access the recording.

CORPT is the home of Corporate Treasury at LSEG. Open the CORPT app in Eikon or Workspace ->

Could debt ceiling wrangles weaken trust in the US dollar? | In a crisis, people tend to flee to the US dollar, as it is considered the ‘least risky’ currency. But are there signs the dollar’s unofficial status as the world’s ‘reserve currency’ could be under threat? The debate around the US reaching its debt ceiling has sparked uncertainty. Read our analysis here.

Navigating the surge in UK inflation: drivers, impacts, and outlook | The persistence of inflation in the UK compared to similar markets is an ongoing concern for policymakers. Through a series of charts, we look at the expectations for inflation in this market. Discover here.

Is passive now massive? Adapting sustainable investment approaches | How have sustainable investment approaches evolved with the growing popularity of passive investing? In our latest episode of the LSEG Sustainable Growth podcast, we talk to Aled Jones, Head of Sustainable Investment Solutions at FTSE Russell, about the range of sustainability metrics seen in different indexes and how they are evolving to meet ever-changing investor needs. Listen now.

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What can speculative dollar positions tell us about currency direction?

Corporates can reduce risk during market interest rate dislocations and an active central bank monetary policy environment.